The statistical system needs autonomy and transparency in collection, compilation and dissemination of statistical data and must be insulated from political interference.
- Prasanna Mohanty
- New Delhi
- June 2, 2019
- UPDATED: June 14, 2019 09:26 IST
India's statistical system has been under a cloud since 2015 when the Central Statistics Office (CSO) released the new GDP series (revised base year of 2011-12) showing significant faster growth in some years, compared with the earlier series, which did not square up with related macro aggregates.
Since then, there have been many instances when credibility of the official data was called into question: trimming of growth estimates for the UPA years by reversing an earlier estimate; upward revision of growth for the year of demonetisation (2016-17) to a decade's high of 8.2 per cent; resignation of PC Mohanan, acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) and its member Prof JV Meenakshi, in protest against non-publication of employment data of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and gross neglect of the NSC.
In all these, the Niti Aayog played a key role even though it has no locus standi and inconvenient data were brushed aside or suppressed. These developments provoked 108 economists and social scientists to protest, expressing concerns over "political interference" in statistical data and calling for restoration of "institutional independence" and "integrity" of statistical organisations.
This article is the fourth in a series that looks at the agenda for the Narendra Modi government's second term. Read the first, second and third part.
Autonomy for the statistical system
The Chief Statistician of India (CSI) and NSC - the former is the functional head of the statistical system and the latter the apex body for standard setting, quality control, regulation of statistical data collected by multiple ministries and departments, including the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and the governing body for the NSSO - are critical to the credibility of official statistics.
Both the CSI and NSC are independent in their functioning, not part of the general bureaucracy and were brought in 2006 to ensure autonomy and transparency to the statistical system in line with the recommendation of the Rangarajan Commission report of 2001.
The status of both is now uncertain.
That is because on May 23, while the entire country was occupied with counting of the votes the outgoing NDA government issued an order restructuring the statistical system. As per this order, the National Statistics Office (NSO) and its constituents - National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and Central Statistics Office (CSO) - became "an integral part of the main ministry" with the NSSO and CSO merging into the NSO and the secretary, MoSPI becoming the new head of the NSO.
The restructuring order is silent on both the CSI and NSC.
Pranob Sen, who was the first CSI (2007-10) and also the chairman of NSC (2013-16), says this order raises a few apprehensions. One, merger of the NSSO - which collects nation-wide data on various socio-economic subjects and many others - means it ceases to exist as an autonomous body and becomes part of the general bureaucracy. Secondly, since the order does not mention CSI and NSC, there is no clarity on what happens to their functioning.
Mohanan also shares such apprehensions.
The fear is that in absence of the oversight of independent bodies like the CSI and NSC, the statistical system may becomes amenable to political interference, like any other government department.
Going by the organisational chart attached with the order, it would seem the MoSPI secretary would double up as the CSI (it was the other way round until now and would mean a bureaucrat occupying the position of CSI). As for the NSC, news reports suggest that the government would reconstitute it after giving it a statutory status. While this is a step in the right direction, it would be equally important to insulate it from political influence. The NSC has been defunct since January with no chairman or independent members.
Better quality of data
Quality of data has been a concern for long. A few weeks ago a technical report of the NSSO sparked a fresh controversy by showing that a large number of companies in the MCA 21 database - which was used for estimating the new GDP series (2011-12 base) - were untraceable, closed down or operating in different sectors. Though care is taken while importing such data for GDP estimations the controversy highlighted the urgent need to improve the quality of data.
The NSC has been pressing for more resources to improve its capabilities, review of data collection, collation and aggregation to ensure quality, timeliness and credibility of the collected statistical output. It has also been demanding that its concurrence is taken for starting any survey in its annual reports for 2016-17 and 1017-18. But the government paid scant respect to it. Mohanan had cited these issues while resigning from his post in January this year.
What possible measures could be taken to reverse the situation and ensure credibility of the statistical system?
Sen suggests two steps: one, preserve the independence of the CSI (the functional head of the statistical system) and two, strengthen the NSC - which is a part time commission with part time chairman and members who are paid a paltry Rs 7,000 a month for a member to Rs 10,000 for the chairman - by at least making its chairman and two members full time employees and providing it statutory status.
Mohanan adds a few more: restore the NSC's oversight over NSSO and CSO; expand the NSC to include more specialists to cover GDP estimates, social sector statistics, sample surveys etc.; rationalise all statistical activities to avoid duplication and integration of data and hive off programme implementation wing of the MoSPI so that the CSI concentrates only on statistics.
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